Some speak of it as a prospect in less than 10 years, ie imminent. And who excludes it for at least another 30 years. But sooner or later it will happen and it will be the real energy revolution.
But really, when? Impossible to say. On the one hand, the long-term vision of energy plans linked to large, mainly public initiatives. On the other, the optimism of a crescendo of private initiatives, even relatively small start-ups. For nuclear fusion, the prospects are hard to decipher for mere mortals. So better to refer to the great specialists.
Take the example of DBRS Morningstar, a North American rating agency, according to which the potential of fusion energy in the energy sector it will not be perceived for decades. According to the agency, fusion has long fascinated energy producers with its potential to create safe and unlimited green energy. For years, announcements of scientific breakthroughs have been impressive, while developments have been less so. It must be concluded that, even if progress continues incrementally, its impact will not be felt for decades. Existing energy production plants, both with renewable sources and with fossil fuels, will therefore not suffer repercussions during their current operational life.
The recent discovery
As you will recall, in early December 2022, US nuclear scientists from the National Ignition Facility of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California announced a breakthrough in nuclear fusion that had been going on for decades. With 192 lasers focused on an eraser-sized capsule containing frozen hydrogen isotopes encased in a diamond, the capsule was heated to a temperature higher than three times the center of the sun. The heat-generated X-rays compressed hydrogen atoms until they melted into helium, releasing high-energy neutrons in an explosion. This is the ignition of the fusion. For the first time, the amount of energy used directly in the reaction was less than the energy produced. The lasers directed 2.05 megajoules (MJ) of energy to cause a small explosion that released 3.15 MJ of energy,
Nuclear fusion produces energy in the opposite way to nuclear fission. There nuclear fission, more conventional, creates energy when heavy atoms (for example, uranium, thorium and plutonium) split, but generates a significant amount of radioactive waste in the long term. Nuclear fusion, on the other hand, creates energy through the fusion or combination of hydrogen atoms with helium atoms. In these combinations, the excess neutron is set free, releasing a large amount of energy (heavy isotopes of hydrogen, i.e. deuterium or tritium, are used for this because of their extra neutron). Some short-lived radioactive waste is created, but it is much less significant than that created by fission.
However, DBRS argues, the latest news is just proof of concept that a fusion reaction can produce more energy than it consumes, one more step in the long journey that will lead us to harnessing the clean energy potential of fusion to help the world to fight global warming. The reaction, however, lasted only a fraction of a second and the energy produced was equivalent to that produced by a third of a liter of petrol or three sticks of dynamite. And even though the actual 2.05 MJ output of the laser that triggered the fusion ignition was less than the energy produced, 322 MJ of energy was used by all the equipment needed to prepare and produce the laser beams.
Therefore, the two great challenges to face and overcome remain. The first consists of sustain the fusion-driven reaction long enough to produce a reliable source of energy to run the generating equipment; the second inincrease energy gain in anticipation of replacing energy lost in preparing equipment used to ignite fusion ignition and energy lost to dissipation in chambers and related equipment before sending it to a turbine to generate electricity.
Among the most advanced large initiatives there is also ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), which is supported by seven governments (China, EU, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States) and which is working to address these challenges. Its main reactor, which includes the world's largest tokamak (an internal tube-shaped magnetic confinement system for ultra-hot plasma), is expected to be completed by 2025. The goal of the ITER initiative is to achieve a lasting gain of 10 times the energy used to produce ignition. This could take a decade or more after operations begin. After that, the commercialization process to develop a safe and reliable fusion reactor that produces a commercially viable amount of energy will take another two decades.
The financial impact on the energy sector
Given that it will take at least three decades for a commercially viable nuclear fusion facility to become operational, it will be a long time before fusion energy has a impact on the energy sector. Also according to Morningstar, fusion energy will not arrive in time to help the world in the low-carbon energy transition. Power plants of all technologies (renewable and fossil fuel) that are operating or starting up today will go through most or all of their normal life cycle before the fusion era contributes substantially to the electric grid . Even when fusion plants are in operation, they will likely only serve as baseload generators, given their large size and continuous operation. Within the jurisdiction of a power grid, in addition to base load generators, there will always be a need for other energy sources that can be turned on and off quickly to meet the demand. intra-day or periodic demand variability.
Hence, renewable energy with storage capacity will still be needed to serve intermediate or peak load producers. Given the long lead-up to the projected age for fusion power, existing nuclear fission power plants, which serve as the baseload for their networks, are unlikely to be affected. However, the affordability to build new nuclear fission plants or refurbish existing ones to extend their life could weaken over time, as fusion power gets closer to reality. That said, it remains likely that conventional nuclear fission power plants will be with us for many more decades.
One future opportunity that merger may offer is the proliferation of green hydrogen fuels. Hydrogen has the potential to power aviation and shipping in a way that batteries, with their heavy weight, cannot. However, hydrogen production is currently extremely inefficient and impractical: two-thirds of the energy required to produce hydrogen by electrolysis and then to convert it into electricity by fuel cells is lost. However, in the future, if large fusion power plants are able to produce hydrogen from a very cheap and abundant energy source, the inefficiency of the hydrogen production process may not be as important.
New protagonists
However, many new fusion initiatives are flourishing around the world, and several of them herald short-term successes. However, they are not start-ups, nor even very recent companies, since some were born more than twenty years ago. These are companies that have already raised hundreds of millions of euros in funding. For example, the Fusion Industry Association claims that at least 33 different companies are pursuing this next-generation nuclear power supply and expects it to actually come to power by 2030. Collectively, they have raised at least $2.8 billion this year, bringing the total private sector investment at $4.8 billion, an increase in funding of 139% compared to 2021.
As wrote the Corriere della Sera, we are in a moment of grace and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory experiment seems to confirm it. "The private sector is essential," said US Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm during the presentation of the results of the experiment. "Public research institutes can take some steps, but it is clear that such a revolution needs the presence of private companies".
France, the United States and Great Britain, China, Japan and Canada seem to be the countries where the most focus is placed on this technology. Leaving aside those who work on other forms of nuclear power, such as the Italian one NewCleo which raised 400 million from lenders such as Exor, overseas companies that already have a considerable specific weight there are four: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (cfs), Tae Technologies, Helion is Zap Energy. The first, an offshoot of the MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center and in which Eni, Google, Bill Gates and George Soros have also invested, should have over one billion and 800 million dollars in cash.
Tae Technologies follows, with around one billion and 200 million in funding also from Google, as well as Chevron, Kuwait and the Japanese Sumitomo Group. Instead, Sam Altman, currently head of Open Ai, and Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal, of the controversial Palantir and known for his conservative and libertarian positions, bet on Helion, which obtained half a billion dollars. Behind Zap Energy, which can count on 200 million dollars in financing, we find Chevron together with Shell.
Google to Tae Technologies, in addition to the investment, has provided its artificial intelligence. Tea's device, called C2W "Norman" from the name of the founder, the physicist Norman Rostoker who died in 2014, is a thirty-metre long stick and therefore different from other donut-shaped reactors. The web giant's Ai are used to keep the process under control and, by learning, to improve it so as to increase efficiency. Here too the goal is to arrive at a reactor ready for the market within the next eight years. In Canada, the General Fusion caught the attention of Jeff Bezos, the “father” of Amazon and Tobias Lütke, head of Shopify. Antagonists in the field of electronic commerce, they find themselves side by side in supporting this company which has raised 400 million overall.
"Commercialization of fusion energy is within reach, and General Fusion is poised to deliver it by 2030," said Greg Twinney, who leads the Canadian company. It is clear that it is now a race against time, also to grab more investments. The other realities that are participating in this race seem to be further behind, as well as having funds that number in the tens of millions and no longer in the hundreds. The British First Light is Tokamak Energy for example, the American Phoenix or the Japanese Helical fusion. Unlike the more important ones mentioned at the beginning, which all have over twenty years of history behind them, this one was born last year. However, it is backed by a multinational company of the caliber of Sony.
