One in 16 workers will be forced to change jobs within the next ten years. The phenomenon will invest over 100 million people in eight countries representing more than half of global GDP (62%): China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, UK is USA. Although Italy is missing, the numbers elaborated by the report "The future of work after COVID-19" of the McKinsey Global Institute they offer useful insights to understand how the pandemic will impact workers in the long term. A clarification is a must: it is not discovered today, due to the coronavirus, that in the coming years there would have been changes in the world of employment. The pandemic, however, has accentuated them, especially in the economies advanced, where the increase in the number of people who will be forced to switch jobs rose by 25% compared to pre-covid data. In recent months we have also discussed new scenarios for the world of work in a podcast with David Dattoli, founder of Talent Garden (Click here to listen to it again).
Rising risk for gender inequalities
New technologies, automation, industry 4.0 and the explosion of e-commerce will certainly reserve new jobs for professionals, who will have to mix more types of skills to meet the needs of a market undergoing transition. On the other hand, as the McKinsey Global Institute report found, the risk of the next few years, when the health emergency is now over, is that inequalities of kind worsen the conditions of those who already today suffer the hardest blows of recession. In countries such as France, Germany and Spain the possibility of changing jobs as a result of changes accelerated by Covid 19 it will be four times higher for women than for men. Scenario we are already partially witnessing: out of 100 thousand people who have lost their jobs in Italy the 98% is a woman as Istat noted in recent months. In the same way, the decisive role of theinstruction: degrees and specializations will protect against future impacts.
More home and less office: one in four employees want it
Looking at the scenarios and opportunities facing companies and countries, the McKinsey Global Institute could not fail to mention the weight that will still have it smart working. At the beginning of the emergency, this new way of working was a sudden and necessary mutation to counter the coronavirus and reduce the chances of contagion. But once the emergency is over, what will guide the choices of those who lead companies? The report calculated that the 25% of the workforce could work from home three to five days a week without affecting productivity in any way. The result is the fruit of a research that the institute conducted on 800 different types of jobs in the eight countries examined by the research and examining 8 thousand tasks. Among the effects of this trend, the one on travel is inevitable: you will travel less for work (-20% of business travel for airlines, which will lose the most profitable branch of their income) and the office will no longer be the only point of reference. Without necessarily looking at the extreme examples of Spotify is Twitter - who have already married him indefinite smart working for all its employees - the McKinsey Global Institute has gathered the views of nearly 300 executives from around the world, who have announced that the offices will also reduce their space in the 30%.
Alessandro Di Stefano